Mitigations to Reduce the Law of Unintended Consequences for Autonomy and Other Technological Advances

The United Nations states that Earths population is expected to reach just under 10 billion people (9.7) by the year 2050. To meet the demands of 10 billion people, governments, multinational corporations and global leaders are relying on autonomy and technological advances to augment and/or accommodate human efforts to meet the required needs of daily living. Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) gene-edited plants and cloning will be utilized to expand human food supply. Biomimetic implants are expected to improve life expectancy with 3D printed body parts. Human functioning will be extended with wearables and cybernetic implants continuing humanitys path toward transhumanism. Families will be strengthened with 3 parent households. Disease will surely be eradicated using the CRISPR-CAS9 genetic engineering revolution to design out undesirable human traits and to design in new capabilities. With autonomous cars, trucks and buses on our roads and on-demand autonomous aircraft delivering pizzas, medical prescriptions and groceries in the air and multi-planet vehicles traversing space, utopia will finally arrive! Or will it? All of these powerful, man-made, technological systems will experience unintended consequences with certainty. Instead of over-reacting with hysteria and fear, we should be seeking answers to the following questions - What skills are required to architect socially-healthy technological systems for 2050? What mindsets should we embody to ameliorate hubris syndrome and to build our future technological systems with deliberation, soberness and social responsibility

Revealing the ISO/IEC 9126-1 Clique Tree for COTS Software Evaluation

Previous research has shown that acyclic dependency models, if they exist, can be extracted from software quality standards and that these models can be used to assess software safety and product quality. In the case of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software, the extracted dependency model can be used in a probabilistic Bayesian network context for COTS software evaluation. Furthermore, while experts typically employ Bayesian networks to encode domain knowledge, secondary structures (clique trees) from Bayesian network graphs can be used to determine the probabilistic distribution of any software variable (attribute) using any clique that contains that variable. Secondary structures, therefore, provide insight into the fundamental nature of graphical networks. This paper will apply secondary structure calculations to reveal the clique tree of the acyclic dependency model extracted from the ISO/IEC 9126-1 software quality standard. Suggestions will be provided to describe how the clique tree may be exploited to aid efficient transformation of an evaluation model

Comparing Parameter Estimation Techniques for an Electrical Power Transformer Oil Temperature Prediction Model

This paper examines various sources of error in MIT's improved top oil temperature rise over ambient temperature model and estimation process. The sources of error are the current parameter estimation technique, quantization noise, and post-processing of the transformer data. Results from this paper will show that an output error parameter estimation technique should be selected to replace the current least squares estimation technique. The output error technique obtained accurate predictions of transformer behavior, revealed the best error covariance, obtained consistent parameter estimates, and provided for valid and sensible parameters. This paper will also show that the output error technique should be used to minimize errors attributed to post-processing (decimation) of the transformer data. Models used in this paper are validated using data from a large transformer in service

Thermal enclosure system functional simulation user's manual

A form and function simulation of the thermal enclosure system (TES) for a microgravity protein crystal growth experiment has been developed as part of an investigation of the benefits and limitations of intravehicular telerobotics to aid in microgravity science and production. A user can specify the time, temperature, and sample rate profile for a given experiment, and menu options and status are presented on an LCD display. This report describes the features and operational procedures for the functional simulation

Comparison of System Identification Techniques for the Hydraulic Manipulator Test Bed (HMTB)

In this thesis linear, dynamic, multivariable state-space models for three joints of the ground-based Hydraulic Manipulator Test Bed (HMTB) are identified. HMTB, housed at the NASA Langley Research Center, is a ground-based version of the Dexterous Orbital Servicing System (DOSS), a representative space station manipulator. The dynamic models of the HMTB manipulator will first be estimated by applying nonparametric identification methods to determine each joint's response characteristics using various input excitations. These excitations include sum of sinusoids, pseudorandom binary sequences (PRBS), bipolar ramping pulses, and chirp input signals. Next, two different parametric system identification techniques will be applied to identify the best dynamical description of the joints. The manipulator is localized about a representative space station orbital replacement unit (ORU) task allowing the use of linear system identification methods. Comparisons, observations, and results of both parametric system identification techniques are discussed. The thesis concludes by proposing a model reference control system to aid in astronaut ground tests. This approach would allow the identified models to mimic on-orbit dynamic characteristics of the actual flight manipulator thus providing astronauts with realistic on-orbit responses to perform space station tasks in a ground-based environment

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions

The Integrated Hazard Analysis Integrator

Hazard analysis addresses hazards that arise in the design, development, manufacturing, construction, facilities, transportation, operations and disposal activities associated with hardware, software, maintenance, operations and environments. An integrated hazard is an event or condition that is caused by or controlled by multiple systems, elements, or subsystems. Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is especially daunting and ambitious for large, complex systems such as NASA s Constellation program which incorporates program, systems and element components that impact others (International Space Station, public, International Partners, etc.). An appropriate IHA should identify all hazards, causes, controls and verifications used to mitigate the risk of catastrophic loss of crew, vehicle and/or mission. Unfortunately, in the current age of increased technology dependence, there is the tendency to sometimes overlook the necessary and sufficient qualifications of the integrator, that is, the person/team that identifies the parts, analyzes the architectural structure, aligns the analysis with the program plan and then communicates/coordinates with large and small components, each contributing necessary hardware, software and/or information to prevent catastrophic loss. As viewed from both Challenger and Columbia accidents, lack of appropriate communication, management errors and lack of resources dedicated to safety were cited as major contributors to these fatalities. From the accident reports, it would appear that the organizational impact of managers, integrators and safety personnel contributes more significantly to mission success and mission failure than purely technological components. If this is so, then organizations who sincerely desire mission success must put as much effort in selecting managers and integrators as they do when designing the hardware, writing the software code and analyzing competitive proposals. This paper will discuss the necessary and sufficient requirements of one of the significant contributors to mission success, the IHA integrator. Discussions will be provided to describe both the mindset required as well as deleterious assumptions/behaviors to avoid when integrating within a large scale system

Timing of Formal Phase Safety Reviews for Large-Scale Integrated Hazard Analysis

Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is a process used to identify and control unacceptable risk. As such, it does not occur in a vacuum. IHA approaches must be tailored to fit the system being analyzed. Physical, resource, organizational and temporal constraints on large-scale integrated systems impose additional direct or derived requirements on the IHA. The timing and interaction between engineering and safety organizations can provide either benefits or hindrances to the overall end product. The traditional approach for formal phase safety review timing and content, which generally works well for small- to moderate-scale systems, does not work well for very large-scale integrated systems. This paper proposes a modified approach to timing and content of formal phase safety reviews for IHA. Details of the tailoring process for IHA will describe how to avoid temporary disconnects in major milestone reviews and how to maintain a cohesive end-to-end integration story particularly for systems where the integrator inherently has little to no insight into lower level systems. The proposal has the advantage of allowing the hazard analysis development process to occur as technical data normally matures

Telerobotic hand controller study of force reflection with position control mode

To gain further information about the effectiveness of kinesthetic force feedback or force reflection in position control mode for a telerobot, two Space Station related tasks were performed by eight subjects with and without the use of force reflection. Both time and subjective responses were measured. No differences due to force were found, however, other differences were found, e.g., gender. Comparisons of these results with other studies are discussed

Considerations of Unmanned Aircraft Classification for Civil Airworthiness Standards

The use of unmanned aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS) has been characterized as the next great step forward in the evolution of civil aviation. Although use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in military and public service operations is proliferating, civil use of UAS remains limited in the United States today. This report focuses on one particular regulatory challenge: classifying UAS to assign airworthiness standards. Classification is useful for ensuring that meaningful differences in design are accommodated by certification to different standards, and that aircraft with similar risk profiles are held to similar standards. This paper provides observations related to how the current regulations for classifying manned aircraft, based on dimensions of aircraft class and operational aircraft categories, could apply to UAS. This report finds that existing aircraft classes are well aligned with the types of UAS that currently exist; however, the operational categories are more difficult to align to proposed UAS use in the NAS. Specifically, the factors used to group manned aircraft into similar risk profiles do not necessarily capture all relevant UAS risks. UAS classification is investigated through gathering approaches to classification from a broad spectrum of organizations, and then identifying and evaluating the classification factors from these approaches. This initial investigation concludes that factors in addition to those currently used today to group manned aircraft for the purpose of assigning airworthiness standards will be needed to adequately capture risks associated with UAS and their operations